How did we do? Rivals reviews rankings of NFL first-rounders
The first round of the NFL Draft is in the books and Rivals.com takes a look at each prospect, recounting our ranking of them out of high school and, more importantly, playing win, lose or draw to determine how we did projecting these players. Led by the No. 1 pick, quarterback Jared Goff, we finished with 20 wins, eight losses and three draws.
1. RAMS: QB JARED GOFF, CAL
Judge Farrell: Win. A top 150 recruit and a four-star is good enough to call this a victory for us. Sure, it would be a nicer if it was a five-star like Jameis Winston last year, but still Goff was rated very highly.
2. EAGLES: QB CARSON WENTZ, NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Judge Farrell: Loss. Wentz wasn’t on anyone’s radar and not even in our database so this was clearly a miss by Rivals and by every FBS coach in the country.
3. CHARGERS: DL JOEY BOSA, OHIO STATE
Judge Farrell: Win. Yes, I regret that Bosa wasn’t a five-star, that’s a regret I’ll have for a while, but as a top 50 prospect in the country, it’s hard to qualify this as anything but a win.
4. COWBOYS: RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT, OHIO STATE
Judge Farrell: Win. Elliott was a Rivals100 prospect and a high four-star, so this has to be qualified as a win. I don’t regret not making him a five-star because the Elliott we saw in high school was not nearly as dynamic as the player he became in college.
5. JAGUARS: DB JALEN RAMSEY, FLORIDA STATE
Judge Farrell: Win. Ramsey was a five-star and a top 10 prospect in the country, so this is clearly a win as well. Ramsey was a great athlete who turned himself into a great defensive back in high school and soared from there.
6. RAVENS: RONNIE STANLEY, NOTRE DAME
Judge Farrell: Win. Stanley was a Rivals250 prospect, just outside the top 175 and a four-star, so having him land in the first round is certainly something we’re proud of.
7. 49ERS: DL DEFOREST BUCKNER, OREGON
Judge Farrell: Win. Scouting players from Hawaii isn’t easy because you only get one or two shots to see them play any good level of competition. So while I would have liked to look back and see Buckner ranked higher, a four-star in the first round is certainly acceptable.
8. TITANS (VIA CLEVELAND): OL JACK CONKLIN, MICHIGAN STATE
Judge Farrell: Loss. Conklin was not on any FBS radar by Rivals.com and going from no ranking to the first round is a miss on our part. Sure, you could use the excuse that everyone else missed as well, including FBS coaches, but that doesn’t hold water when basing this on ranking.
9. BEARS (VIA BUCCANEERS): DE/OLB LEONARD FLOYD, GEORGIA
Judge Farrell: Win. A two-time four-star, once out of high school and once out of prep school, Floyd was highly coveted for two years. A four-star in the first round is fine with us, a two-time four star is even more of a win.
10. GIANTS: DB ELI APPLE, OHIO STATE
Judge Farrell: Win. A Rivals100 prospect and top 10 cornerback in the best corner class I have ever scouted, Apple is a win for sure even if he was higher ranked early in the process and fell a bit at the end.
11. BUCCANEERS: DB VERNON HARGREAVES, FLORIDA
Judge Farrell: Win. Another five-star prospect, Hargreaves was one of our highest-rated cornerbacks in Rivals.com history and the No. 2 player in his class. This was a clear home run.
12. SAINTS: DL SHELDON RANKINS, LOUISVILLE
Judge Farrell: Loss. Rankins was underrated clearly as a defensive end coming out of high school. He was a high three-star, but one of the top defensive tackles taken in round one of the draft should at least be a four-star.
13. DOLPHINS: OL LAREMY TUNSIL, OLE MISS
Judge Farrell: Win. The No. 1 offensive tackle and a five-star out of high school goes this high in the draft? That’s a surefire win and a projection to be proud of. We always knew Tunsil had three-and-out potential.
14. RAIDERS: S KARL JOSEPH, WEST VIRGINIA
Judge Farrell: Loss. Ranked in the top 100 in Florida and top 40 at his position is solid, but for a kid who ended up excelling at a Power Five program, his three-star ranking is too low for anything but a loss.
15. BROWNS: WR COREY COLEMAN, BAYLOR
Judge Farrell: Win. As a Rivals250 prospect despite being undersized, we’ll count this as a win. Yes we would have liked to be able to look back and see Coleman ranked higher, but a four-star inside our 250 is enough for a win.
16. LIONS: OL TAYLOR DECKER, OHIO STATE
Judge Farrell: Win. A Rivals250 prospect and a four-star, having Decker land in the first round is not stunning. Yes there were many other offensive linemen ranked ahead of him in 2012, but that was one of the best tackle classes we’ve seen.
17. FALCONS: DB KEANU NEAL, FLORIDA
Judge Farrell: Win. Neal was a national top 75 prospect and a top 10 player at his position, so the fact he ended up as a first-rounder can only be considered a win.
18. COLTS: OL RYAN KELLY, ALABAMA
Judge Farrell: Draw. Because he’s a center, a position that isn’t ranked as high as guard or tackle in our system, I’ll make this one a draw despite no national ranking. Okay that might be a stretch for a kid with an Alabama offer, but this was a tough projection.
19. BILLS: SHAQ LAWSON, CLEMSON
Judge Farrell: Win. Lawson went from a four-star out of high school to the No. 1 prep player the next year. I should have made him a five-star as our top prep player back then usually was granted that fifth star, but still this is a win.
20. JETS: LB DARRON LEE, OHIO STATE
Judge Farrell: Draw. How can a three-star be a draw? Lee was similar to Vic Beasley last year, who was also determined a draw because he didn’t have a specific position coming out of high school and played some quarterback. He was a tough evaluation, so we’ll take a draw here.
21. TEXANS: WR WILL FULLER, NOTRE DAME
Judge Farrell: Win. Nearly a top 175 prospect, Fuller was highly ranked for a kid who weighed about 170 pounds soaking wet out of high school. We liked him more each time we saw him and he probably would have been a top 100 kid had the recruiting cycle been longer.
22. REDSKINS: WR JOSH DOCTSON, TCU
Judge Farrell: Loss. Doctson wasn’t ranked at his position, nationally or in Texas, so the fact that only Wyoming wanted him is no excuse. Yes, it’s nice we saw a three-star who wasn’t on the major FBS radar at all, but that’s not enough to avoid the L here.
23. VIKINGS: WR LAQUON TREADWELL, OLE MISS
Judge Farrell: Win. A five-star and a top five overall recruit, Treadwell was destined to be a first-rounder and we projected him as a three-and-out. Overcoming that horrific injury made us question this a bit when he was a sophomore, but he did an amazing job recovering.
24. BENGALS: DB WILLIAM JACKSON, HOUSTON
Judge Farrell: Loss. Jackson didn’t have any of the rankings needed to be a win here and even though Houston was a much better offer than Doctson had with Wyoming, we still missed on him a bit.
25. STEELERS: DB ARTIE BURNS, MIAMI
Judge Farrell: Win. Burns was a top 200 recruit and a guy who was super athletic but very raw. The size and length was there as well as the ball skills but he lacked technique. Despite that, we saw him as a national recruit and we’ll count this as a win.
26. BRONCOS (VIA SEAHAWKS): QB PAXTON LYNCH, MEMPHIS
Judge Farrell: Draw. Okay, why is Doctson a loss and Lynch a draw? Because quarterbacks are much harder to evaluate, Lynch was rated a three-star despite no Power Five interest and he was so raw in high school that I’m actually proud of his ranking.
27. PACKERS: DL KENNY CLARK, UCLA
Judge Farrell: Win. A four-star and top 25 player at his position, Clark may not have been ranked as high as he should have been but it’s still a nice ranking for a first-rounder.
28. 49ERS (VIA CHIEFS): OL JOSH GARNETT, STANFORD
Judge Farrell: Win. Garnett was part of one of the best offensive line hauls I’ve seen in the Pac-12 and he was just a few spots away from being a five-star. A national top 50 player, No. 2 at his position and No. 2 in the loaded state of California, this is a clear win.
29. CARDINALS: DL ROBERT NKEMDICHE, OLE MISS
Judge Farrell: Win. The No. 1 player in the country should be a first-rounder, so this is clearly a win even if Nkemdiche didn’t fully live up to the hype in college.
30. PANTHERS: DL VERNON BUTLER, LOUISIANA TECH
Judge Farrell: Loss. No one really recruited Butler aside from Louisiana Tech and if we had given him a third star I’d call it a draw, but that two-star ranking is always a loss for a first-rounder.
31. SEAHAWKS: OL GERMAIN IFEDI, TEXAS A&M
Judge Farrell: Loss. Despite being a top 100 recruit from Texas, Ifedi wasn’t ranked nationally and his three-star status is not enough to consider this anything but a loss.